Be complacent, be long, enjoy the bull market…but only against this

  • Posted by on May 21st, 2015 at 3:42 pm

There will always be something in the market to make a bull/bear argument.  There’s always something that doesn’t fit, that is giving a red flag.   This is why over the years we’ve become good at finding map/tell/edges to take away the doubt and give us something to trade against.   Nervous traders usually just churn their accounts. Don’t be that trader.

As our readers know we’ve been swing long  various stocks now for a while, holding much longer than our usual time frame.    First we had the $IWM trend-line to trade against — that broke and we got defensive.  Then the weekly on $QQQ held and that became our new map.

We now have two short-term edges to lean against — once these two go we will be happy to stop being bullish.

For short-term traders there is losing standard dev 1 on BB on $SPY — this is very close by with a close under 212.50 being the first warning sign — albeit a minor one.


For intermediate time frame there is the $QQQ 20sma weekly we’ve mentioned now for weeks:  right now near 208.   This one is much more important and bulls will not want to lose this — we’ve been trending on it for 6 months.




That’s our map.  This helps keep us in the market and not freak out/go against trend because of some  potential H & S pattern or macro/Greece/QE  data.   Keep it simple.  Stay involved.  Lean against the hard edge of your line in the sand.

  • The new tell
    Posted by on May 10th, 2015 at 5:45 pm

        As our readers and newsletter followers know we have been using the IWM trend-line as THE tell for months.   The Russell has […]

  • Now things get interesting
    Posted by on March 25th, 2015 at 6:03 pm

    So where are we at?   Well on Friday the $IWM closed above daily and WEEKLY upper Bollinger Bands.  We posted this on Sunday.   […]

  • First time in 2015
    Posted by on March 10th, 2015 at 7:46 pm

    The $SPY finally closed under the standard deviation 2 Bollinger Band for the first time in 2015. Does that make it an automatic buy? Hell […]

  • The plan ahead
    Posted by on October 4th, 2014 at 3:33 pm

      The (at least short-term) top on September 18 wasn’t too hard to predict.    That’s not hindsight quarterbacking — on the same day we […]

  • Stock talk
    Posted by on June 16th, 2014 at 7:43 pm

      We used to blog a lot more before Twitter.  It seems that at least for us both mediums draw from the same energy source. […]

  • Goodbye sweet trend
    Posted by on March 28th, 2014 at 4:25 pm

      What a week.   For the first time in a long time (December 2012) the bulls were not able to defend the line: One of […]

  • Update III: Now what?
    Posted by on February 9th, 2014 at 11:24 am

      Our original post on the correction called for hard edges to trade against at $SPY 177 and 173.    We got trades off both but […]

  • Will it be any different this time, part II
    Posted by on February 3rd, 2014 at 2:55 pm

    On Jan 26 we posted the first part of this post, Will it be any different this time? looking at two magnet spots we thought […]

  • Will it be any different this time?
    Posted by on January 26th, 2014 at 1:31 pm

      At the start of any correction the question on everyone’s mind is ‘will this be a buyable dip?’   We think ultimately the weekly 20sma […]