Now things get interesting

  • Posted by on March 25th, 2015 at 6:03 pm

So where are we at?   Well on Friday the $IWM closed above daily and WEEKLY upper Bollinger Bands.  We posted this on Sunday.





Above upper BB there are often only two choices: digestion or reversal.  But rarely is it the place for new entries.   Market pulled back and had major follow through today.   We like to focus on IWM here because it’s been the clear leader.  The first short-term support coming up is the trend-line near 122.



We would like to emphasize “short-term”:  as you can see on weekly, it’s not really that important for longer term trend, but if bulls want to keep recent momo alive, that’s what they have to defend.



Along with the trend-line also keep an eye on $QQQ 104.5-105 — that was our first support test (from our first blog post this year!) and we said we would buy the first test.  This would now be considered the second test.  If that goes (roughly equivalent to $SPY 204) then things can get murky fast.




Another good tell to keep an eye on is the tranny index $IYT.   The whole sector is on support right now — watch to see if bulls can keep things alive here next few days.   $UNP $FDX $CSX all good for the watch-list.      Volatility coming back — watch these major “tell” lines for clues on how serious bears are about this pullback.




  • First time in 2015
    Posted by on March 10th, 2015 at 7:46 pm

    The $SPY finally closed under the standard deviation 2 Bollinger Band for the first time in 2015. Does that make it an automatic buy? Hell […]

  • The plan ahead
    Posted by on October 4th, 2014 at 3:33 pm

      The (at least short-term) top on September 18 wasn’t too hard to predict.    That’s not hindsight quarterbacking — on the same day we […]

  • Stock talk
    Posted by on June 16th, 2014 at 7:43 pm

      We used to blog a lot more before Twitter.  It seems that at least for us both mediums draw from the same energy source. […]

  • Goodbye sweet trend
    Posted by on March 28th, 2014 at 4:25 pm

      What a week.   For the first time in a long time (December 2012) the bulls were not able to defend the line: One of […]

  • Update III: Now what?
    Posted by on February 9th, 2014 at 11:24 am

      Our original post on the correction called for hard edges to trade against at $SPY 177 and 173.    We got trades off both but […]

  • Will it be any different this time, part II
    Posted by on February 3rd, 2014 at 2:55 pm

    On Jan 26 we posted the first part of this post, Will it be any different this time? looking at two magnet spots we thought […]

  • Will it be any different this time?
    Posted by on January 26th, 2014 at 1:31 pm

      At the start of any correction the question on everyone’s mind is ‘will this be a buyable dip?’   We think ultimately the weekly 20sma […]

  • The perfect chart and goal
    Posted by on January 17th, 2014 at 12:10 pm

    A lot of us on StockTwits fit within different variations of what is called “active trading” even though personally we have slowed down a lot […]

  • Government shutdown/Debt crisis in perspective — see yellow box
    Posted by on October 19th, 2013 at 7:15 pm

        Weekly chart of the $SPY — the government shutdown/debt crisis October 01-17 is highlighted in yellow.   Could it have been more inconsequential in […]