Be complacent, be long, enjoy the bull market…but only against this

  • Posted by
  • on May 21st, 2015

There will always be something in the market to make a bull/bear argument.  There’s always something that doesn’t fit, that is giving a red flag.   This is why over the years we’ve become good at finding map/tell/edges to take away the doubt and give us something to trade against.   Nervous traders usually just churn their accounts. Don’t be that trader.

As our readers know we’ve been swing long  various stocks now for a while, holding much longer than our usual time frame.    First we had the $IWM trend-line to trade against — that broke and we got defensive.  Then the weekly on $QQQ held and that became our new map.

We now have two short-term edges to lean against — once these two go we will be happy to stop being bullish.

For short-term traders there is losing standard dev 1 on BB on $SPY — this is very close by with a close under 212.50 being the first warning sign — albeit a minor one.

Chart20150521123030

For intermediate time frame there is the $QQQ 20sma weekly we’ve mentioned now for weeks:  right now near 208.   This one is much more important and bulls will not want to lose this — we’ve been trending on it for 6 months.

 

Chart20150521123042

 

That’s our map.  This helps keep us in the market and not freak out/go against trend because of some  potential H & S pattern or macro/Greece/QE  data.   Keep it simple.  Stay involved.  Lean against the hard edge of your line in the sand.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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