Houston: We have our base
- Posted by admin
- on December 10th, 2011
We’ve talked about the 200SMA wall for months — every time the $SPY got close to this major resistance in it did so from an exhausted V-type move. But not this time. We hit it again this week and just like always, retraced, but on Friday the market came right back up to base under it — we’re at the cusp of breaking through this coming week. It hasn’t paid to anticipate now for 5 months and we held off from doing so but we’re on break-out watch mode and have a list of decent candidates as our go-to stocks.
Furthering the bull case is the bar down below the 50SMA for $TLT
Copper has broken out of the range and now is basing nicely. $HG_F
Euro on the other hand is just following the trend-line down — Note however that one good day would break it out of the pattern.
The same can be said for this risk-on metal — silver right now has a bearish pattern but one good day would take it above the trend-line. Many charts to us look the same — we’re not anticipating but we do understand that they could be on the cusp of a break-out and it’s good to have that possibility in your trading plan come Monday.
So to recap — we’ve seen this scenario before where things are lining up, bulls are excited and bang bears pull the rug out. So yes we approach break-out possibility with cynicism but at the same time we do see that this is the first time $SPY has approached the 200 SMA from a decent base which increases the possibility that yes, this time will be different.
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- Keep swimming but with an eye on the shore
- Make peace with not catching every move
- 21 days and counting
- Trade against it
- What’s your edge?
- Wait for it
- Keep Calm and Carry On
- Even if you don’t trade it, you have to watch it
- This is where we would buy AAPL
- No matter what your time-frame, be patient enough to trade against an edge