Silver road map
- Posted by hcpg
- on April 25th, 2011
We’ve been talking about shorting the silver top (and alluded to wanting 50 reversal on weekend) now in one post after another. Last night silver traded up 7%, possibly at least partially on rumors that China would start dumping USD for hard assets. Silver rallied to the very symbolic 50 level and reversed, now down 9% just from last night’s high.
If you want to buy the dip, here’s your road map. In our experience it’s never a good idea to start picking at bottoms on the first day of a reversal. The price-action is simply too heavy.
We wrote a few times about the change of angle of ascent — something that often precedes short-term tops. Note now that silver is testing the steep trend-line. We believe this will break soon. The second line of defense is much sturdier, and it currently is around $40 on the $SI_F. We’d be buyers on this secondary less steep trend-line.
Updated chart — note how trend-line broke and now has been regained. For day-traders the low 44.61 now is the first floor.
What if you don’t trade futures? Well, let’s take a look then at $SLV. Instead of the 50 top we have here the $47 top. Note how strongly it bounced today on the steep trend-line. This most likely will break tomorrow. Again, be careful going long on the steep trend-lines. Risk/reward is often much better on the longer time-frame, milder ascent trend-line.
Secondary trend-line is currently also at $40.
If you want the silver miners there is a great spot coming up near 26.5 on $SIL
If you like the junior gold miners (plus a few silver) then $GDXJ has a nice support area near 36.
The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.blog comments powered by Disqus