Two important days–keep these levels on screen
- Posted by hcpg
- on September 26th, 2012
The last two sessions have been pivotal:
Yesterday the $QQQ closed under the 20sma — the first time since July. Note the previous tests of the 20sma and how the bulls repeatedly closed the market above the 20sma– until yesterday. Bearish.
However today we had the hold on the commodity sectors exactly on support. In bear markets support is futile; hence this action is important win for the bulls.
Same thing for the junior gold miners ($GDXJ) as bulls bid it up on the 200sma.
The miners ($XME) also nice bounce on the ascending 50sma:
And on the other side $TLT going straight into resistance– we like that 125.30 area as a short term short on first test.
And as extra bonus, we held the 25% fib retracement from the June rally. Technically though we could retrace all the way to the rising 50sma and be in uptrend (which is very much a possibility).
We believe all talk about “market top” is premature. There’s still no evidence for it — today key sectors held the re-test and we believe market is digesting the rally. This could take a while, and it’s healthy, but it’s not indicative of a market top. What would make us more bearish? If we lost all the above said support levels on a closing basis with bonds regaining a trend higher move.
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